In our latest Housing Market Outlook report, we provide housing activity projections for Canada and the 18 largest urban centres to the end of 2024. We also identify the upside and downside risks to the outlook.
The growth in prices, sales levels and housing starts are expected to moderate from recent highs but remain elevated in 2022. Improving levels of employment and immigration, as pandemic restrictions continue to recede, are expected to be key factors.
That being said, homeownership affordability is expected to decline with rising mortgage rates and the growth in prices outpacing income growth. Rental affordability is also set to decline from increasing rental demand and low rental housing stock.
In 2023 and 2024, the growth in prices will trend closer to long-run averages. Sales and starts activity are expected to remain above 5- and 10-year averages.
- The growth in prices will likely continue to be led by markets with low listings, including Vancouver, Toronto, Montréal and Ottawa.
- Supply constraints on construction will continue to impact Vancouver and Toronto, highlighting the role of housing supply in determining affordability.
- The Prairie provinces, led by Alberta, will likely see relatively strong sales and starts levels and be stimulated by energy sector investments and higher energy and commodities prices. The growth in prices is predicted to remain well below the national average, reflecting more balanced supply conditions than in other regions.
- Ontario, Québec and British Columbia will likely see the strongest price gains in 2022. This will largely reflect tighter supply constraints than in the rest of Canada. The growth in prices is expected to slow significantly in these provinces by the end of 2024.
- The Atlantic region will likely see continued upward pressure on housing activity and growth in prices from high inter-provincial migration. Home prices will remain relatively low in comparison to the Canadian average.
All CMHC analyses and forecasts of market conditions are established by using the full range of quantitative and qualitative tools currently available. To account for the numerous sources of uncertainty, forecast ranges are incorporated.
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We will be publishing a series of reports over the course of 2022 that will help to deepen our understanding of housing supply challenges in Canada and to ultimately inform better policies and decision-making.